Hand-Count Projection Tool
A Ready-to-Use Set of Formulas for You to Adjust for Your County's Criteria by TBTR Strategies
Are you interested in determining whether HAND-COUNTING your county’s next election, whether using our recommended hand-counting method, or any other hand-counting method, would be feasible in your county?
TBTR Strategies has designed this projection tool for large counties across the nation. This tool will help you determine how many counting teams you will need to process all of your ballots in a given election and have the precinct returns delivered to your county by 1am at the latest.
Our goal is to have each counting team process each batch of ballots (containing 50 ballots maximum), with approximately 34 races on each ballot, in 1.5hrs, and I have video evidence of that being totally feasible. See our related report and video footage of the event.
In counties who do not have hand-marked ballots, but who have legible PVRs (Printed Vote Records) printed from the BMDs (Ballot Marking Devices), we recommend simply removing the scanner/tabulators from the ballot boxes at each location, adding a paper poll book to the process, and counting each precinct’s returns by hand using the ECHO Hand Count Method.
This is most easily done in counties using ballots that look like the HART InterCivics PVRs, and less feasible in counties using ES&S - as their ballots are so small as to possibly be out of compliance with the EAC’s (Election Assistance Commission) standards for legible paper ballots outlined in the VVPAT Guidelines (Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail). Though this is still possible with ES&S ballots, it may be more challenging.
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Here I will post a preview of the text outlining our content inside the excel workbook just in case the example shown here is difficult to read, with the entire workbook linked below. This set of formulas comes along with our projected timeline and our recommended strategy for the upcoming primary elections:
Formula for Calculating Hand-Counted Election Scenarios Using the ECHO Hand Counting Method created in Texas by Elizabeth Baron as the recommended method.
(We did not create the ECHO method, but it is the method we endorse as part of our Best Practices. We did create these formulas independent of the ECHO teams for independent verification of feasibility.)
This set of formulas is ready to use in your county projections. We project 1.5hrs to count a batch of 50 ballots with 34 races. We expect our counters to begin sorting batches from each precinct of Early Voting returns and counting ballots using ECHO during the hours of 7am - 7pm at the elections warehouse where the ballots are dropped off and stored under video surveillance until certification.
The warehouses, which usually contain hundreds of voting systems in their lockers, will be mostly empty and that space is ideal for counting early voted ballots while the voting systems are all deployed on election day, which also happens to be the first day we can begin to count ballots.
To begin, I have an outline for you to review and consider, but a few things are important to understand:
The faster you can accurately count a batch of ballots, the fewer teams you will need to count all ballots in time to have precint returns delivered by around 1am.
And
Voting by precinct is a prerequisite for conducting a hand count. Regardless of when or how we switch back to voting by precinct, there will be an uptick in provisional ballots because we cannot turn any voters away per federal law, and the ePoll books generate their proper ballot style upon check-in.
Step ONE: All inputs in this formula can be adjusted for your county's specific criteria.
This example uses Tarrant County, Texas voter numbers, legal grounds and either establishes or assumes:
- 1.3Million Registered Voters, the exact number of expected voters in the new consolidated precincts. (Etablished by Tarrant County Elections. Consolidated precints by ballot style brings us down to 400 - Our Election Adminstrator has already done this work.)
- 20% turnout, higher than historical turnout trends of the past
- 50% EV turnout
- 49% ED turnout
- 1% Absentee turnout
- Average of 1689 batches of 50 ballots per precinct for EV
- Average of 1655 batches of 50 ballots per precinct on ED
- 500 micro batches of <10 ballots for absentee precincts
- Batches of 50 ballots with 34 races
- 254 counting teams of three to count all Early Voting Ballots in 10hrs on Election Day (7am-7pm) and either the same counting teams or an additional set of 249 teams of three, to deploy to Election Day polling places to help count the rest of the precinct batches and deliver results by 1am.
- 15 teams of three to count available Absentee ballots on ED and with more time to count the following week while the remaining ballots come in. Total number of absentee batches may differ, as even one ballot from a precinct must be batched for that precinct. These batches will be numerous, but small and completed swiftly.
-Using existing poling locations, assign precincts to locations and use Provisional Ballots to satisfy countywide access. See our report on this subject.
-Using ePoll Books to check voters in and generate proper ballot styles, accomodating provisional voters this way as well, along with the BMDs to create a Printed Vote Record as usual. These records will be cast into a ballot box and hand counted later, either at central count or on location.
-Use a Paper Poll Book containing all precinct voters to be delivered on the first day of Early Voting, used to determine who may vote a regular ballot. Any voter not on the list for the location they wish to vote, will vote a provisional ballot.
All inputs and assumptions unique to your county can be adjusted using the formulas provided, beginning with the number of registered voters, number of precincts, and your expected turnout for Early Voting, Election Day and Absentees.
After those numbers have been established and entered into this table, and after adjusting the average number of staffers necessary for your locations or number of ballots you would prefer to batch together if needed, you can then move forward.
Step TWO: Confirm all totals by working the math backwards. Each formula, when double-clicked, will highlight the cells used to determine that specific number for that row.
Step THREE: Consult our outline for Contracting with the County for a Party Primary. We recommend ordering the following from the County elections department:
-Standard number of election kits per precinct
- All available polling locations
- Ballots marked with precinct and consecutively pre-numbered beginning with the number “1”
- Separate Ballot Boxes from other parties for both Early Voting and Election Day
- ePoll books both electronic and paper
- Necessary temporary staff to conduct election based on how many ballots you expect per registered voters and expected turnout, and how fast you can count your ballot batches
See attached workbook, where at the bottom I have highlighted my personal predictions, rather than the over-estimated assumptions above. Also, I originally aimed to count these batches in 1hr, which is reflected in the over-estimated formulas. However, in the outlined items at the bottom of the first sheet, I have adjusted my personal predictions and adjusted the time for each batch to reflect 1.5hrs instead, which is what I have evidence for.
My final predictions are pictured above.
Thank you,
Aubree Campbell
Founder TBTR.US
takingtxback@gmail.com
The county is supplying a minimum of 2500 Temp workers (our counters) per party per primary, so we will plan on asking for slightly more so that we can count all precincts in time. I plan on asking the county to supply all workers that the county parties cannot supply themselves, and to compensate them for their training on the ECHO method.
You've been a busy little bee! I'm going to request the workbook .